Can Our Government Save Us From the Coming Flu Pandemic?

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization declared that the A (H1N1) Swine Flu had become a pandemic.  There is now no question that the disease will spread throughout the world.  It is expected that this influenza virus will revisit the U.S. in the fall, as most influenzas do, and the number of cases will be far higher than what was experienced earlier this year.  There are now a couple of questions that come to mind. 1) Is our government taking any steps to protect the population from the spread of this disease? 2) What will our government do if the virus mutates (as they often do) into a form that is resistant to any vaccines that might have been prepared in advance?

In 1918-1919 a very deadly pandemic influenza spread throughout the world, killing between 30,000,000 and 50,000,000 people worldwide.  More people died from that flu than died in World War I.  An estimated 675,000 Americans died from the flu during that pandemic.  At the time there was nothing that could be done to prevent the spread of the disease. Flu vaccines were unknown.  The coming pandemic may well spread as far and wide as the 1918-1919 pandemic, maybe more since we have a much more densely populated world now.  Right now, the current pandemic flu virus is not as deadly as the 1918 one. But does that mean we are safe?  What if it mutates? What is our government doing about the situation?

According to John O. Brennan, the President’s advisor on Homeland Security, the government is planning to have a flu vaccine available for voluntary vaccinations by mid-October. Which is a little late. The flu season usually starts before then.  He doesn’t say how many doses are being created, nor does he say how much they will cost – but they will be voluntary – if you can get one. Let’s take a moment and compare our American response to the problem with that of a country that has a national health insurance program. Hmmm…I winder what Ireland is doing about the flu? On July 4th the government of Ireland announced that they will provide free flu vaccinations to the entire population of the country this autumn. Aren’t you glad we don’t suffer from a national health program like those poor Europeans?

Oh, there is this one other detail – you know, the one about the virus mutating.  What do we do if the virus mutates into a really deadly virus?  That’s what happened in 1918.  If the mutation is major then the vaccines we are making in the U.S. will probably have no effect – and we also won’t be able to make enough of a new version of the vaccine in time.  That’s because we grow our vaccines in eggs, and that just takes a lot of time and lots of eggs too.  After all, our drug companies can’t make the vaccine in batches of a million eggs at a time.  So, to put it succinctly, we’ll just be out of luck.

On the other hand, there is another way to make a vaccine – synthetically.  Synthetic vaccines using techniques that already exist could build up our supply 100 times or more faster than using eggs. But our government is not pushing this technique. After all – we don’t have a national health system, do we?  It’s up to our private, profit-making, drug companies to develop such a vaccine and, of course, the real issue is this: does it make economic sense? Can they recoup their investment dollars? Who’s going to pay for all the development costs? So, while some companies say they already can make such a vaccine synthetically, as a country, we really don’t have much capability at the moment.  And of course, if the flu suddenly mutates, it’ll be a little late to create the capability won’t it?

So, what is the answer to my question? Can our government save us from the pandemic that the World Health Organization says is certain to come? Sure, if the virus doesn’t mutate and still only produces very mild cases of flu. But do we really need saving from that? And what if the virus turns deadly. That’s when we really will need our government to save us.  So far, however, it doesn’t look good. Right now the profit picture, probabilities of mutation, investment risk, and so forth is sort of keeping our major drug manufacturers on the bench  with regard to the synthetic vaccine thing.  Remember, the key issue here is profit.  Aren’t you glad we don’t have a government health program?

By the way, if you like reading medical thrillers (and you like my blog), you might also like my novel about a pandemic. It’s called The Viral Epiphany and its available on Amazon.  You’ll need a Kindle reader though, because it’s only available for digital downloads for now. You can take a look at it and order it here.