It seems like such an easy question: how much is my house worth? The problem is that this is not an easy question – and that fact that that is a problem is the real problem. Let me explain…
A long time ago, when Tricky Dick Nixon was President of the United States, our country was running up a huge bill trying to pay for the Vietnam war. There was only so much money coming in from taxes so we had to borrow money by selling treasury securities to other countries and Americans too. Treasuries were a pretty safe bet – as good as the dollar, which in those days had its value fixed in relationship to gold. At one time you could redeem your paper dollar for its equivalent in gold. Later, the paper dollar could be redeemed in silver, if you felt like carrying around bags of silver with you. The point was that a dollar was nothing more than a proxy for your ownership of some precious metals that were stored at Fort Knox or somewhere else. Nixon’s problem was that there was only so much gold and silver in our vaults – so we could only print so much money.
At some point Nixon or his advisers came up with the perfect solution, disconnect the dollar from any relationship at all to any precious metal – in fact detach it from anything physical. The dollar became a Federal Reserve Note, not redeemable for anything. This allowed Dick Nixon to print as many dollars as he liked so when it came time for people to cash in their Treasury securities they would be paid back in dollars that were worth much less than if they had been backed by a certain amount of gold. The value of the dollar had dropped – or, another way of looking at it is that the value of gold went up a whole lot.
Which brings us to houses – almost anyway. There is little doubt that the increase in house prices and lots of other stuff since Dick Nixon inflated his way out of Vietnam War debts was not the same thing as an increase in value. The value of things didn’t change much, just the price because the dollar was losing its purchasing power. OK. So that’s it? No. Not exactly.
If we are talking about the value of a house, and not the price – which we can now see is not the same thing – how do we actually determine its value? Well, the common sense way of determining the value of something ought to take into account the value of the things that went into it, like wood, stone, paint, drywall, and so forth. Then there is the cost of labor – a bunch of carpenters, electricians, plumbers and so forth had to be paid for the value of their labor. So we have to figure in that value too. Then there is the value of the land. How large is the lot? Is it swampland? Is it next to a superhighway? Is it level? Is it cleared? Some of these items are easy to value, for example, if the lot isn’t level we need to pay for a bulldozer to level it. And so forth. On the other hand, there are some items that are sort of intangibles, like the proximity to a superhighway. How do you value that? This is where things get a little difficult.
The issue we are faced with is trying to place a value on something that has no intrinsic value. It doesn’t cost anything more to build a house next to a superhighway than it does to build it far away. However, it does make it less desirable. So, we enter the world of supply and demand, where the value of things is not related to tangible things but to emotional things like desire. This is where the trouble begins too.
Several years ago we entered a fantasy world of house prices. The price of houses was going up because…because…well, because the price of houses was going up. It was a fabulous game anyone could play. Buy a house, flip it, and make a lot of money. Except there was nothing tangible supporting the price of houses. Sort of like the Emperor’s New Clothes, only with houses. For the past couple of years house prices have been in a near free fall in some parts of the country and they are expected to continue falling. So how far will they go?
Now that the balloon has popped it seems that house prices will have to fall until the “irrational exuberance” of home buyers and the equally exuberant lending banks is completely dead. House prices have to fall to the point where they reflect the actual construction costs of the house, i.e. materials, labor, and land, plus some sort of adjustment for the desirability of its location as determined by the local market. But all the price inflation due to the irrational exuberance of flipping houses has to go.
Oh. There is one other thing. The dollar isn’t what it used to be either. You need to account for the inflation of the dollar since you bought your house. Figure somewhere between 5% and 10% per year – roughly. It’s a cumulative effect so you need to calculate each year of ownership separately – a computer program might help a lot. Then there is depreciation. Things wear out. Houses get old and start to fall apart, so unless everything is fixed up like new you need to deduct the loss in value from normal wear and tear, plus the natural aging and decay of things.
All things considered, your house is probably worth a lot less than you think it is – unless you happen to live in one of those parts of the country that, for some reason or other, never got caught up in all the irrational exuberance. For those areas out west like California and Arizona and in the east like Florida, homeowners face more pain to come in the great housing value reality check.
House values are a bit difficult to figure at anytime because of all the ingredients that go into their value like materials, labor, loss of value of the dollar, and so forth. Irrational exuberance is not part of this equation. It doesn’t add value; it only increases the price. The problem is that as the irrational exuberance of home buyers fades, so does the price. Eventually, houses will return to their real value, but it looks like a lot of formerly exuberant, but many ordinary American citizens will continue to have an extremely painful reintroduction to reality.
Thank God the banks are OK.